Estimated Economic Indonesia: 2010

Newspapers in Jakarta this week many proclaim the economic problems in 2010, although the issues of choice of presidential campaigns 2009-2014 (before July). Almost everyone agrees that the program of economic recovery and the general public began to be taken seriously and continuously.

Car sales is estimated to come down from the year 2008 as many as 600,000 to be 300,000. "Now is our optimistic in 2009 car sales figures could reach 400,000 units. This is only back at the position in 2007. Honda began in March have started the production of 1 shif into 2 shif," said Jonfis, after dedication Honda Dealer in Salatiga, Central Java , Monday (26 / 5) malam.Optimisme, said Marketing and Aftersales Service Director of PT Honda Prospect Motor, Jonfis Fandy, look in the mirror on the decline in car sales in 2009 estimated that separah will not be suspected from the beginning.

This data on consumer purchasing power and the automotive industry. Economic condition in Indonesia in 2010 is estimated to not be apart from the global crisis, is even more serious when compared with this year.

According to Martin Panggabean economic observers in Jakarta, Tuesday (17 / 3), the condition is caused by not membaiknya global economy, the more expensive search for funds from the market, as well as termination of employment (PHK) large-scale.

He said, the government should not only discuss the matter of interest rates. But also must anticipate how the expansion of credit, menanggulani PHK and how economic growth in 2010.

Martin cite conditions in the United States. The probability of a depression in the U.S. increased between 20% -30% of economic growth so that the country adidaya akan minus 5% to 7%.

With so much going akan PHK, including in Indonesia. Things like this that need to be anticipated by the government. If economic growth in 2010 only 1% to 2%, the level of PHK more, he said.

In this year, he said, India can be a bit optimistic because the economic growth in the number 4% to 4.5%. However, the problem of global, in developed countries that do not have signs of the crisis will end in 2009.

In addition, in the next year the bank will also be careful pour bad credit due to the expectation the economy. When economy worsened, banks are reluctant to contribute the amount of the loan where the risk of failure to pay (default). The decline in interest rates by Bank Indonesia also will not make banks reduce interest rates tribe.

In addition, the poor economic growth will also impact on the rupiah. Martin says the expectation of the market is estimated at the end of 2009 the exchange rate is estimated to 13,500 per U.S. dollar. Bank Indonesia is optimistic even though the rupiah exchange rate will be improved at the end of the year.

I'm not sure (the exchange rate can go down) because the fund does not enter into the country, but out of funds to the U.S. Bond issue a U.S. $ 2 trillion. This means that each semester U.S. $ 500 billion of which duitnya, he says 60% will be absorbed from outside the country is not in the country, he said.

Meanwhile, the stock and bonds in Indonesia akan flee to Singapore. So that the pressure on the price of financial assets the Indonesian poor. This clearly will not encourage the stronger exchange rate.